Probability Concepts for CAT

For the XAT, SNAP, and other MBA entrance exams, this part is important. Over the past few years, CAT has not paid much attention to this part, but you should still study it hard because the test's outline and structure are not clear.

Remember that the CAT has only asked easy, reasonable questions from this chapter so far that you could solve with just common sense. The word "probability" means "the chance that something will happen."

So, he has a total of four ways to go (i.e., four different directions). Now, if he wants to go in a certain way, the chances of him getting there are 1/4, since he can only choose one of the four routes at a time.

Probability of an event = \(\frac{Number\ of\ Favourable\ Outcomes}{Total \ Number \ of \ Possible\ Outcomes}\)

Important Definitions

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An experiment is a planned action that can lead to a set of clear results.

When repeated under the same conditions, the results of the different experiments are always the same. For example, normal science experiments.

An experiment is called a "random experiment" if each time it is done under the same conditions, the results are not the same but could be any of the possible results.

A sample space is the set of all the possible results of a random experiment. It is usually written as S.

If the possible results of a random experiment are E1, E2, E3,..., En, then S = E1,E2,...,En. Each part of sample space "S" is also called a "sample point."

Any subset of a sample space is called an event.

Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment and let E1 and E2 be the two events. Then E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events if E1 ∩ E2 = φ

Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment.

Let E1, E2,..., En be the subsets of S such that

(i) E ∩E =φ for i≠j and ij

(ii) E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E3 ∪....∪En = S

then the set of events E1, E2, E3, ..., En is said to form a mutually exclusive and exhaustive system of events.


Probability

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In a random experiment, let S be the sample space and let E ⊆ S. where E is an event.

probability of occurrence of the event E

P(E) = \(\frac{No \ of \ Desired \ Outcomes }{No \ of \ Possible\ Outcomes} = \frac{No \ of\ elements\ in \ E}{No \ of\ elements\ in \ S} = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)}\)

For the above definitions it is clear that

  • 0 ≤ P (E) ≤1
  • P (φ) = 0
  • P (S) =1

P (E) =1− P (E) P (E) + P (E) = 1

Odds in Favour of An Event and Odds Against An Event

If m is the number of ways something can happen and n is the number of ways it can not happen, then

  • Odds in favor of the event = \(\frac{m}{n}\)
  • Odds in against the event = \(\frac{n}{m}\)

Important Value

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Important Addition Theorems

  1. P(E) ≥ 0
  2. P(φ) = 0
  3. P(S) = 1

Theorem 1. If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment. Then,

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P (A and B)

Theorem 2. If A, B and C three events associated with a random experiment

P (AB C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(AB)−P(B C) − P(AC) + P(AB C)

Theorem3. If A and B be two events such that A⊆B, then P(A) ≤ P(B)

Theorem 4. If E is an event associated with a random experiment, then 0 ≤ P(E) ≤1

Theorem 5. For any two events A and B

P(A − B) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)

P(B − A) = P(B)−P(A∩B)

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)

Some important results

(A) If A, B and C are three events, then

(i) P [Exactly one of A, B, C occurs] = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) −2[(A B) + (B C) + ( A C )] + 3P ( A B C )

(ii) P [Exactly two of A, B, C occur] = P(AB)+P(B C)+P(AC) − 3P ( A B C )

(iii) P (Atleast two of A, B, C occur) = P (AB)+P(B C)+P (AC) − 2P ( A B C )

(B) If A and B are two events, then  

  • P (Exactly one of A, B occurs) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 2P ( A B ) = P(A B)− P(A B)

Conditional Probability

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Let A and B be two events associated with a random experiment. Then, the probability of occurrence of A under the condition that B has already occurred and P (B ) ≠ 0, is called conditional Probability denoted by P\((\frac{A}{B})\)

 P\((\frac{A}{B})\) is the probability of occurrence of A given that B already occurred

 P\((\frac{B}{A})\) is the probability of occurrence of B given that A already occurred


Multiplication Theorem

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Let A and B be two events associated with the same random experiment then

 P(AB) = P(A) P\((\frac{B}{A})\) , if P(A) ≠ 0

Conversely,

 P(AB) = P(B) P\((\frac{A}{B})\), if P(B) ≠ 0


Law of Total Probability

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Let E1, E2, ...En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated with a random experiment. If A is any event which occurs with E1 or E2 or ... or En , then

\(P(A) = P(E_1) P(\frac{A}{E_1}) + P(E_2) P(\frac{A}{E_2})+ .......+ P(E_n) P(\frac{A}{E_n})\)

Baye’s Rule

Let E1 , E2 , ... En be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated with a random experiment. If A is any event which occurs with E1 or E2 or ... or En , then

\(p(\frac{E_1}{A}) = \frac{P(E_1) P (\frac{A}{E_1})}{ \Sigma \ P(E_i) P (\frac{A}{E_i})}\) , i = 1,2,…,n


Previous Year CAT Questions

Ques 1: If 0 < x < 270°, then what is the probability that sin x > cos x ? (CAT 2016)

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Ans: 

If 0 < x < 45° ,sin x < cos x

 x = 45°, sin x = cos x

If 45°<x≤90°,sinx>cosx

If 90° < x ≤ 180°, sin x > cos x (as sin x is always + ve

In that zone)

If 180°<x<225°,sinx>cosx

x=225°,sinx=cosx

If 225°<x<270°,sinx<cosx

Probability = \(\frac{(90-45+ (180-90)+ (225-180)}{270}= \frac{180}{270} = \frac{2}{3}\)

Ques 2: Three of the six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen at random. The probability that the triangle with these three vertices is equilateral, equals (express your answer in decimal). (CAT 2015)

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Ans: (0.1

There are 6 vertices in a hexagon. Using 3 vertices out of 6 vertices we can form 6C3 triangles. But there can be only triangles out of 6C3 triangles which are equilateral

regular hexagon

(i) ∆ACE (ii) ∆BDF.

Required Probability = (2/6C3) =(2/20) = 0.1

Ques 3: A shopkeeper received a pack of 15 pens, out of which 4 were defective. The shopkeeper decided to examine every pen one by one selecting a pen at random. The pens examined are not put back. What is the probability that ninth one examined is the defective pen? (CAT 2013)

  1. \(\frac{11}{195}\)
  2. \(\frac{16}{195}\)
  3. \(\frac{8}{195}\)
  4. \(\frac{17}{195}\)

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Ans: (C)

Let A be the event getting exactly 3 defectives in the examination of 8 pens and B be the event of getting nineth pen defective.

P(A) = (4C3 x 11C5)/15C8

P (\(\frac{B}{A}\)) = 1/7

Required probability = P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(\(\frac{B}{A}\)) = \(\frac{8}{195}\)

Ques 4: There are four boxes. Each box contains two balls: one red and one blue. You draw one ball from each of the four boxes .What is the probability of drawing at least one red ball? (CAT 2010)

  1. \(\frac{1}{2}\)
  2. \(\frac{1}{4}\)
  3. \(\frac{2}{16}\)
  4. \(\frac{15}{16}\)

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Ans: (D)

probability of at least on red ball = 1 − (Probability of all blue balls)

probability of drawing one blue ball is (1/2)

probability of drawing all four blue balls will be (1/2)4 = (1/16)

probability of at least on red ball = 1- (1/16) = 15/16

Ques 5: Five persons entered the lift cabin on the ground floor of an seven storied building. Suppose that each of them independently and with equal probability, can leave the cabin at any floor beginning with the first. What will be the probability of all the five persons leaving at different floors? (CAT 2009)

  1. 0.02
  2.  0.15
  3. 0.37
  4. 0.38

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Ans: (B)

There are seven levels above the main floor.

 75 is the total number of ways each of the five people can exit the cabin on any of the seven floors.

And the optimal number of ways, i.e. the number of ways in which the five individuals evacuate the building via different floors, is 7P5.

Required Probability = (7P5/75) = 0.15

Ques 6: A box contains 6 red balls, 7 green balls and 5 blue balls. Each ball is of a different size. The probability that the red ball selected is the smallest red ball is __  (CAT 1993)

  1. 1/18
  2. 1/3
  3. 1/6
  4. 2/3

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Ans: (C)

As the red balls are smallest of all the type of balls.

If we select one out all the red balls then

Required probability = 1/6


Some more Important practice questions

Ques 1: A speaks truth in 60% cases and B speaks truth in 80% cases. The probability that they will say the same thing while describing a single event is :

  1. 0.36
  2. 0.56
  3. 0.48
  4. 0.20

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Ans: (B)

E1 = The event in which A speaks truth
 

E2 = The event in which B speaks truth

P(E1) = \(\frac{100}{60}= \frac{3}{5}\)      P(E1’) = 1 – \(\frac{3}{5}= \frac{2}{5}\)

P(E2) = \(\frac{80}{100}= \frac{4}{5}\)      P(E2’) = 1 – \(\frac{4}{5}= \frac{1}{5}\)

Required probability = P[(E1E2)∪ (E’1E’2)] =P(E1E2)+P(E’1E’2) = P(E1). P(E2)+ P(E1). P(E2)

 = \((\frac{3}{5} \times \frac{4}{5}) + (\frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{5}) = \frac{14}{25}= 0.56\)

Ques 2: Two squares are chosen at random on a chessboard, the probability that they have a side in common is : 

  1. \(\frac{3}{32}\)
  2. \(\frac{1}{32}\)
  3. \(\frac{1}{18}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (C)

There are (64 x 63) distinct methods to select two distinct squares. Each of the four corner squares has a favorable case count of two. The favorable number of cases for each of the 24 non-corner squares on all four sides of the chessboard is 3. For each of the remaining 36 squares, the number of favorable circumstances is 4.

the total number of favourable cases = 4 x2 + 24 x 3 + 36 x 4 = 224

Required probability = \(\frac{224}{64 \times 63}= \frac{1}{18}\)

Ques 3: An old person forgets the last two digits of a telephone number, remembering only that these are different dialled at random. The probability that the number is dialled correctly is :

  1. \(\frac{1}{90}\)
  2. \(\frac{81}{91}\)
  3. \(\frac{2}{99}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (A)

The last two digits can be dialled in 10 P2 = 90 ways.

Out of these 90 cases only one case is favourable.

So, the required probability =

Ques 4: Three squares of a chessboard are chosen at random, the probability that two are of one colour and one of another is:

  1. \(\frac{67}{992}\)
  2. \(\frac{16}{21}\)
  3. \(\frac{31}{32}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (B)

3 squares on a chessboard have 64C3 possible selections. There are two mutually exclusive ways to select two squares of one color and a third square of a distinct color.

  • 2 white and one black
  • 2 black and one white

No of favourable cases = 32C2 × 32C1 + 32C1 × 32C2 =2(32C2 × 32C1) = 1056

Total outcomes = 64C3= 41664

Required probability = (1056/41664) = (16/21)

Ques 5: What is the probability that four S’s come consecutively in the word MISSISSIPPI?

  1. \(\frac{4}{165}\)
  2. \(\frac{4}{135}\)
  3. \(\frac{24}{165}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (A)

Total number of words that can be formed = \(\frac{11!}{4!4!2!}\)

When all the S’s are together then the number of words = \(\frac{8!}{4!2!}\)

Required Probability = \(\frac{\frac{11!}{4!4!2!}}{\frac{8!}{4!2!}} = \frac{4}{165}\)

Ques 6: A shipment of fifteen wristwatches contains four defective units. The wristwatches are chosen at random and examined one by one. The evaluated items are not returned. What is the likelihood that the ninth item examined is the final defective item?

  1. \(\frac{11}{195}\)
  2. \(\frac{17}{195}\)
  3. \(\frac{8}{195}\)
  4. \(\frac{16}{195}\)

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Ans: (C)

A be the event of getting exactly 3 defectives in the examination of 8 wristwatches.

B be the event of getting ninth wristwatch defective.

P(A) = (4C3 x 11C5)/15C8

P\((\frac{B}{A})\) = 1/7

Required probability = P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P\((\frac{B}{A})= \frac{8}{195}\)

Ques 7: Given that the sum of two positive quantities is 200, the probability that their product is at least \(\frac{3}{4}\) times their highest product value is as follows:

  1. \(\frac{99}{200}\)
  2. \(\frac{101}{200}\)
  3. \(\frac{87}{100}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (B)

Let x and y be the two non-negative integers since x + y = 200

(xy)max = 100 x 100 = 10000

calculation

Favourable no of ways = 15-50+1 = 101

Total number of ways = 200

Probability = 100/200

Ques 8: A hand of playing cards contains nine cards numbered from 1 to 9. Three random cards are drawn and replaced. The probability of receiving 1 even and 2 odd cards is then:

  1. \(\frac{3}{143}\)
  2. \(\frac{100}{243}\)
  3. \(\frac{50}{343}\)
  4. \(\frac{7}{72}\)

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Ans: (B)

Let Ei(i = 1, 2, 3 etc.) denote the event of drawing an even

numbered card in ith draw and Fi (i = 1, 2, 3) denote the

event of drawing an odd numbered card in ith draw, then

required probability

=P[(E1 ∩F2 ∩F3)∪(F1 ∩E2 ∩F3) ∪(F1 ∩F2 ∩E3)]

=P(E1) P(F2) P(F3) + P(F1) P(E2) P(F3) + P(F1) P(F2) P(E3)

\(\frac{4}{9} \times \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{5}{9} + \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{9} \times \frac{5}{9} + \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{5}{9} \times \frac{4}{9}= \frac{100}{243}\)

Ques 9: From the set of numbers [1, 2,... n], three are to be drawn at random without replacement. If the first number is known to be lesser than the second, the conditional probability that the third number lies between the first two is:

  1. \(\frac{1}{3}\)
  2. \(\frac{2}{3}\)
  3. \(\frac{5}{6}\)
  4. \(\frac{7}{12}\)

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Ans: (A)

A = The first number is less than the second number

B = The third number lies between the first and the second

Let the selected numbers be x1, x2, x3. Then they satisfy exactly one of the following inequalities.

x1 <x2 <x3,  x1 <x3 <x2,  x2 <x1 <x3,  x2 <x3 <x1,  x3 <x1 <x2,  x3 <x2 <x1

The total number of ways of selecting three numbers and then arranging them = nC3× 3! = nP3

P(A) = (nC3× 3)/( nC3× 3!)

P(B) = nC3/( nC3× 3!)

P\((\frac{B}{A})= \) P(A ∩ B)/ P(A) = 1/3

Ques  10: Two numbers b and c are chosen at random with replacement from the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. The probability that x2 + bx + c > 0 for all x ∈R is :

  1. \(\frac{23}{81}\)
  2. \(\frac{7}{9}\)
  3. \(\frac{32}{81}\)
  4. \(\frac{65}{729}\)

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Ans: (C)

Since b and c each can assume 9 values from 1 to 9.

So, total number of ways of choosing band cis 9 × 9 = 81 Now, x2 + bx + c > 0 for all x R

the possible values of b and c for which b2 < 4c

table

required probability = 32/ 81

Ques 11: The letters 'ASSISTANT' and 'STATISTICS' are each selected at random. The likelihood that they are identical letters is:

  1. \(\frac{35}{96}\)
  2. \(\frac{19}{90}\)
  3. \(\frac{19}{96}\)
  4. None of These

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Ans: (B)

ASSISTANT → AA I N SSS TT, STATISTICS → A II C SSS TTT Here N and C are not common and same letters can be A, I, S, T.

Probability of choosing A = (2C1/9C1) x (1C1 /10C1) = (1/45)

Probability of choosing I = (1/9C1) x (2C1 /10C1) = (1/45)

Probability of choosing S = (3C1/9C1) x (3C1 /10C1) = (1/10)

Probability of choosing T = (2C1/9C1) x (3C1 /10C1) = (1/15)

Required Probability = (1/45)+ (1/45)+ (1/10)+ (1/15) = (19/90)


How to approach Probability questions in CAT

  • Thoroughly understand the concept of permutation and combination before starting with this chapter.
  • It is based on basic understanding of how to choose the required outcomes and total outcomes
  • Go through conditional probability, multiplication theorem and law of total probability before attempting any question.

CAT Related Questions

1.
For some positive real number \(x\) , if  \(log_{\sqrt 3}(x)+\frac{log_x(25)}{log_x(0.008)}=\frac{16}{3}\), then the value of \(log_3(3x^2)\) is 

    • 4
    • 6
    • 7
    • 9

    2.
    The population of a town in 2020 was 100000 . The population decreased by y% from the year 2020 to 2021, and increased by x% from the year 2021 to 2022, where x and y are two natural numbers. If population in 2022 was greater than the population in 2020 and the difference between x and y is 10 , then the lowest possible population of the town in 2021 was

      • 74000
      • 75000
      • 73000
      • 72000

      3.
      Pipes A and C are fill pipes while Pipe B is a drain pipe of a tank. Pipe B empties the full tank in one hour less than the time taken by Pipe A to fill the empty tank. When pipes A, B and C are turned on together, the empty tank is filled in two hours. If pipes B and C are turned on together when the tank is empty and Pipe B is turned off after one hour, then Pipe C takes another one hour and 15 minutes to fill the remaining tank. If Pipe A can fill the empty tank in less than five hours, then the time taken, in minutes, by Pipe C to fill the empty tank is

        • 75
        • 120
        • 60
        • 90

        4.
        In a company, 20% of the employees work in the manufacturing department. If the total salary obtained by all the manufacturing employees is one-sixth of the total salary obtained by all the employees in the company, then the ratio of the average salary obtained by the manufacturing employees to the average salary obtained by the non-manufacturing employees is

          • 6 : 5
          • 4 : 5
          • 5 : 4
          • 5 : 6

          5.
          The sum of all possible values of \(x\) satisfying the equation \(2^{4x^2} - 2^{2x^2+x+16} + 2^{2x+30} = 0\), is

            • \(\frac{5}{2}\)
            • \(\frac{1}{2}\)
            • 3
            • \(\frac{3}{2}\)

            6.
            For a real number \(x\) , if \(\frac{1}{2},\frac{log_3(2^x-9)}{log_34}\), and \(\frac{log_5\bigg(2^x+\frac{17}{2}\bigg)}{log_54}\) are in an arithmetic progression, then the common difference is

              • \(log_4\bigg(\frac{23}{2}\bigg)\)
              • \(log_4\bigg(\frac{3}{2}\bigg)\)
              • \(log_47\)
              • \(log_4\bigg(\frac{7}{2}\bigg)\)

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